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Line chart of WTI crude oil and USD/CAD, both indexed to 100 on June 30, running through September 29, 2026.

Oil rose strongly over the third quarter, yet the Canadian dollar ended it about where it started. Daily USD/CAD moves track changes in the gap between US and Canadian two-year yields far more closely than they track oil, so rate differentials are setting the currency. The relationship also depends on the window, because the currency strengthened in July and August and weakened in September.

This chart is presented for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect the source and period indicated and may no longer be current.

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Chart of the USD/CAD exchange rate against the US minus Canada two-year yield gap, daily from June 30 to September 29, 2026.

The gap is the US Treasury two-year yield minus the Government of Canada two-year yield, and daily USD/CAD changes have moved with it over the quarter.

USD/CAD and the US-Canada Two-Year Yield Gap, June 30 to September 29, 2026

October 1, 2026

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Line chart of Brent crude, the S&P/TSX Composite and gold futures rebased to 100 at the August 31 close.

Brent was the only one of the three to finish above its starting level, while the index and gold both fell.

Brent, TSX and Gold Rebased to the August 31 Close

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Line chart of Government of Canada 2-year, 5-year and 10-year benchmark yields, August 31 to September 29, 2026.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight time, yet Canadian yields rose as United States yields surged.

Government of Canada Benchmark Yields, September 2026

September 30, 2026

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Line chart of the S&P/TSX Composite daily close for September 2026, with a shaded slide and a dashed line at the August 25 record.

The index fell for the month even though Brent crude gained and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, because rising United States bond yields outweighed oil and gold.

S&P/TSX Composite Daily Close Through September 2026

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Line chart of WTI crude oil prices, September 8 to 25, 2026, easing to about $92.55 from a September 10 peak.

Crude slipped on reports that Washington and Tehran were weighing a phased arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and on signs that…

WTI Crude Slips to a Weekly Low on Hormuz Deal Reports

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Line chart of USD/CAD from September 12 to 25, 2026, rising steadily after the September 16 Federal Reserve rate increase.

The slide in the Canadian dollar began after the Federal Reserve's mid-September rate increase and continued through nearly every session that followed.

USD/CAD Climbs to a Seven-Week High Since the Fed Hike

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Charts and data on this site are provided for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Each chart reflects the source and period indicated on it and may not represent current market conditions.

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© 2026 The Canadian Index. A public reference library of Canadian financial market charts, updated daily from public market data. See the Legal and Usage Terms page for full disclaimers.